Baxter and Benson Pick the Winners, Hand Out Republican Points, and Explain Who They Trust When the Game Is on the Line

By Mitch Baxter and Nathan Benson

MITCH BAXTER: Football is back, Nathan, and before anybody starts planning the Super Bowl parade, remember that we are barely out of the driveway.

The 2026 season opened with Seattle defeating New England 13-10 in the Super Bowl LX rematch, while San Francisco made a considerably louder statement by beating the Rams 27-7 in Australia.

That is enough football to form opinions.

Not enough football to become emotionally attached to them.

NATHAN BENSON: Which has never stopped you before.

MITCH: Correct.

And this year we’re introducing the Republican Points System.

Ten points means strong defense, competent management, control of the line of scrimmage, limited turnovers and evidence that somebody in the organization understands accountability.

One point means Washington bureaucracy with shoulder pads.

Let’s pick some football games.

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CHICAGO BEARS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS

This is one of Sunday’s more interesting quarterback matchups. Caleb Williams and Bryce Young are forever connected by the trade involving the No. 1 pick, and both franchises are coming off surprisingly successful 2025 seasons.

MITCH: I like Chicago. Ben Johnson gives Caleb Williams structure, and Carolina still needs to prove it can consistently generate offense.

Pick: Bears

Republican Points: 8/10

NATHAN: Carolina is improving, but Chicago has the better offensive ceiling. Give me the Bears, although closer than Mitch thinks.

Pick: Bears

Republican Points: 7/10

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BALTIMORE RAVENS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

MITCH: Baltimore football traditionally travels well because defense and physicality travel. That’s practically federalism with a running game.

Give me Baltimore.

Pick: Ravens

Republican Points: 9/10

NATHAN: The Colts can make this uncomfortable at home, but over four quarters Baltimore has more ways to win.

Pick: Ravens

Republican Points: 8/10

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ATLANTA FALCONS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS

NATHAN: Pittsburgh at home. Week One. Physical game.

This feels like exactly the kind of afternoon when everyone spends three hours wondering how Pittsburgh is winning before Pittsburgh wins.

Pick: Steelers

Republican Points: 8/10

MITCH: Agreed. Until Atlanta proves otherwise, I’ll take institutional stability over promises of future growth.

Pick: Steelers

Republican Points: 8/10

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CLEVELAND BROWNS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

MITCH: Jacksonville.

Cleveland has spent too many years operating like a government program that receives additional funding every time it fails.

Pick: Jaguars

Republican Points: 7/10

NATHAN: Jacksonville isn’t getting my full endorsement yet, but at home they’re the better choice.

Pick: Jaguars

Republican Points: 6/10

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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

Cincinnati enters as the favorite, and the biggest question remains whether Joe Burrow can stay healthy through an entire campaign. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is beginning a new era without Mike Evans as its automatic security blanket.

NATHAN: Healthy Joe Burrow? Bengals.

Pick: Bengals

Republican Points: 8/10

MITCH: Tampa will score. Cincinnati will score more.

Pick: Bengals

Republican Points: 8/10

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NEW YORK JETS AT TENNESSEE TITANS

MITCH: Every year somebody talks me into believing in the Jets.

Not this year.

Pick: Titans

Republican Points: 6/10

NATHAN: Tennessee at home. Keep it simple. Run the football, play defense and don’t turn the ball over.

That’s almost our entire platform.

Pick: Titans

Republican Points: 7/10

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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT DETROIT LIONS

NATHAN: Detroit.

Physical offensive line. Aggressive football. Home crowd.

Pick: Lions

Republican Points: 9/10

MITCH: Detroit’s entire organizational personality says, “We’re going through you rather than around you.”

I’m voting yes.

Pick: Lions

Republican Points: 9/10

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BUFFALO BILLS AT HOUSTON TEXANS

This may be the best 1 p.m. game.

MITCH: Buffalo, but I don’t feel comfortable about it.

Houston can rush the passer and has enough offensive talent to turn this into four quarters of trouble.

Pick: Bills

Republican Points: 7/10

NATHAN: I’m going Buffalo too. Championship-caliber teams have to win difficult road games.

Pick: Bills

Republican Points: 7/10

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THE 4:25 WINDOW

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

NATHAN: Chargers.

They’re at home and I trust their overall roster more.

Pick: Chargers

Republican Points: 8/10

MITCH: Chargers, although this franchise has historically discovered innovative ways to make simple things complicated.

Pick: Chargers

Republican Points: 7/10

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GREEN BAY PACKERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS

MITCH: Now we’re talking.

Division game. Minnesota. Two teams that know each other.

I’m taking Green Bay narrowly.

Pick: Packers

Republican Points: 7/10

NATHAN: I’m going Minnesota.

Home-field advantage matters more in division games, and this feels like our first disagreement worth remembering.

Pick: Vikings

Republican Points: 7/10

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MIAMI DOLPHINS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

NATHAN: Miami has more speed. Vegas has the home crowd.

I’ll take Miami.

Pick: Dolphins

Republican Points: 6/10

MITCH: I’m taking Vegas.

Why?

Because somebody has to be irresponsible in this column.

Pick: Raiders

Republican Points: 5/10

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WASHINGTON COMMANDERS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

This is a fascinating NFC East opener. Philadelphia is without A.J. Brown after his offseason move to New England, so we’ll find out immediately what the Eagles’ next offensive identity looks like.

MITCH: Philadelphia at home.

When two teams are reasonably close, I’ll take the team playing in Philadelphia in front of 70,000 people who behave as though losing constitutes a personal insult.

Pick: Eagles

Republican Points: 8/10

NATHAN: Eagles, barely.

Washington can absolutely win this game.

Pick: Eagles

Republican Points: 7/10

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SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK GIANTS

Now we get politics.

Not Republican politics.

NFC East politics, which are substantially more vicious.

NFL.com’s Week One preview notes that New York enters 2026 with John Harbaugh leading the Giants, Cam Skattebo healthy and Malik Nabers potentially returning, while Dallas spent the offseason rebuilding a defense that finished last in scoring defense in 2025.

MITCH: Give me Dallas.

I know.

I know.

Every year the Cowboys show you enough talent to believe, followed by enough dysfunction to remind you that optimism has consequences.

Still, I’m taking Dallas.

Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 23

Republican Points: 6/10

NATHAN: Nope.

I’m taking New York.

Prime time. MetLife. New coach. Improved defense. Crowd completely insane by kickoff.

Pick: Giants 24, Cowboys 21

Republican Points: 8/10

MITCH: This one could determine whether Nathan is allowed back next week.

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MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

DENVER BRONCOS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The official Week One line listed Kansas City as only a 2.5-point favorite, which tells you how much respect Denver is getting entering 2026.

MITCH: Arrowhead. Monday night. Patrick Mahomes.

Until somebody proves otherwise, I’m not voting against Kansas City under those circumstances.

Pick: Chiefs 27, Broncos 21

Republican Points: 9/10

NATHAN: Here comes my upset.

Denver.

They can defend. They can pressure the quarterback. And if you’re going to become a legitimate AFC contender, eventually you have to walk into Kansas City and stop acting impressed by the building.

Pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 23

Republican Points: 10/10

MITCH: Ten Republican Points?

NATHAN: I’m putting political capital behind it.

MITCH: You’ll either look brilliant Tuesday morning or you’ll be holding a press conference explaining where the money went.

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BAXTER-BENSON FINAL BALLOT

Game	Mitch Baxter	Points	Nathan Benson	Points
Bears at Panthers	Bears	8	Bears	7
Ravens at Colts	Ravens	9	Ravens	8
Falcons at Steelers	Steelers	8	Steelers	8
Browns at Jaguars	Jaguars	7	Jaguars	6
Buccaneers at Bengals	Bengals	8	Bengals	8
Jets at Titans	Titans	6	Titans	7
Saints at Lions	Lions	9	Lions	9
Bills at Texans	Bills	7	Bills	7
Cardinals at Chargers	Chargers	7	Chargers	8
Packers at Vikings	Packers	7	Vikings	7
Dolphins at Raiders	Raiders	5	Dolphins	6
Commanders at Eagles	Eagles	8	Eagles	7
Cowboys at Giants	Cowboys	6	Giants	8
Broncos at Chiefs	Chiefs	9	Broncos	10

The Week’s Republican Lock

Mitch Baxter: Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis.

Defense, physical football and an organization that expects to contend every season.

Nathan Benson: Detroit Lions over New Orleans.

Control the line, establish the run, make the other side respond to you.

Upset Special

Mitch: Raiders over Dolphins.

Nathan: Broncos over Chiefs.

And if Nathan actually hits Denver over Kansas City on Monday night, he’ll spend the rest of September pretending he invented football.

That’s Week One.

Polls closed.

Kick it off.

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