“Some College, No Degree” – The 40% of New Students Who May Not See the Payoff

For decades, America has treated college as a universal good. Every student is told the same thing: get into college, borrow what you must, and it will pay off in the long run.

It’s an appealing story. But for millions, it’s not true.

The problem is simple and measurable. Nearly four in ten students who start college never finish.[¹] That’s not a minor footnote — it’s the single biggest factor behind the rising number of Americans who carry debt but never see higher earnings.

According to Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce, lifetime earnings for those with some college but no degree are roughly $1.9 million — compared to $1.6 million for high school graduates.[²]

That $300,000 lifetime gap may sound meaningful, but it shrinks after you consider the cost of tuition, interest, and the years of foregone income while in school.

That $300,000 gap is also an average — not a guarantee. The Georgetown estimate doesn’t separate by major, by school tuition, or by whether a student earned any job credentials. Once you account for those differences, the picture changes fast.

Students who leave private colleges without completing their studies are more likely to lose money because of tuition costs. Those from public schools fare a little better, but only if they complete something useful — a certification, a technical license, or a marketable skill. When you factor in cost, debt, and the years out of the workforce, the supposed “some college” premium often disappears altogether for too many.

The CEW’s Certificates: Gateway to Gainful Employment and College Degrees (2012) found that:

• Certificate holders earn 20% more on average than those with “some college, no degree.”
• In some technical fields, certificate earners out-earn many bachelor’s graduates.

The CEW report and follow-up research (including ROI of College Majors, 2019) show that:

• Majors with direct labor-market skills (e.g., accounting, nursing prerequisites, or computer science) give partial earners a better outcome — sometimes close to the full degree premium.
• But students in humanities or social science tracks who leave before finishing often see no measurable return over high school graduates.

Colleges, policymakers, and parents all bear some blame for overselling the promise. We talk about “college graduates” as if everyone who attends becomes one. We don’t talk enough about who doesn’t make it. Or why.

And we rarely mention that the wage premium isn’t uniform. It varies sharply by major, by school, and by whether students go on to graduate study. A bachelor’s degree in engineering or computer science can justify the investment. But a degree in education, fine arts, or social work often does not. Many degrees need to be coupled with a graduate degree before seeing any wage premium.

Before students take on debt, they deserve a candid evaluation of their odds of completing a degree. That means measuring success not by enrollment, but by graduation and earnings outcomes. Colleges have that data. They just rarely make it clear to applicants.

The same is true for public policy. We should stop pretending every student is best served by a four-year university. Many would do better — and more quickly — through alternative paths: certification programs, skilled trades, apprenticeships, and two-year technical degrees.

These routes cost less, take less time, and often produce solid wages. In many cases, their return on investment outperforms a failed or low-paying college degree.

None of this diminishes the value of education itself. A college degree still opens doors — for those who finish, and who finish in the right fields. But the “college-for-all” mindset has outlived its data.

Today’s truth is sharper. College remains a good investment for some students — not for all.

The next step isn’t to discourage ambition, but to align ambition with reality. That means giving students honest information, not false promises. It means designing more educational routes that fit different talents, goals, and financial realities.

Because the real crisis isn’t that too few students go to college. It’s that too many go without a realistic plan to finish.

Bottom line: When four in ten students leave college with debt but no degree, the problem isn’t that they failed the educational system — it’s that the system failed them.

📚 References

1. National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Undergraduate Retention and Graduation Rates, 2024. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/ctr
2. Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, The College Payoff: More Education Doesn’t Always Mean More Earnings, 2021. https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/collegepayoff2021
3. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, 2023. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market

About The Author