After an upset-heavy Week 3, Mitch Baxter and Nathan Benson tackle all 16 games, the latest injuries, Thursday Night Football and whether Washington can make it two straight
Week 3 was a reminder that the NFL doesn’t care about anybody’s betting sheet. Underdogs went 10-6 straight up, including Cleveland over Carolina, Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, Washington over Seattle, Las Vegas over New Orleans, Denver over the Rams and Chicago’s 27-7 dismantling of Philadelphia. New York Post
Now Mitch Baxter and Nathan Benson are back for Week 4.
The spreads below are the bet365 lines reported by FOX Sports on September 30, so they can move before kickoff.
The Week 4 Picks
| Game | Spread | Mitch Baxter | Mitch ATS | Nathan Benson | Nathan ATS |
| Steelers @ Browns TNF | PIT -2.5 | Steelers | PIT -2.5 | Steelers | PIT -2.5 |
| Colts @ Commanders London | IND -3.5 | Colts | IND -3.5 | Commanders | WAS +3.5 |
| Cardinals @ Giants | ARI -1.5 | Cardinals | ARI -1.5 | Cardinals | ARI -1.5 |
| Cowboys @ Texans | HOU -2.5 | Cowboys | DAL +2.5 | Texans | HOU -2.5 |
| Packers @ Buccaneers | GB -3.5 | Packers | GB -3.5 | Packers | GB -3.5 |
| Jaguars @ Bengals | CIN -2.5 | Jaguars | JAX +2.5 | Bengals | CIN -2.5 |
| Rams @ Eagles | LAR -3 | Rams | LAR -3 | Rams | LAR -3 |
| Patriots @ Bills | BUF -6.5 | Bills | BUF -6.5 | Bills | BUF -6.5 |
| Jets @ Bears | CHI -3.5 | Bears | CHI -3.5 | Bears | CHI -3.5 |
| Titans @ Ravens | BAL -11.5 | Ravens | BAL -11.5 | Ravens | TEN +11.5 |
| Dolphins @ Vikings | MIN -10.5 | Vikings | MIN -10.5 | Vikings | MIA +10.5 |
| Broncos @ 49ers | SF -2.5 | 49ers | SF -2.5 | Broncos | DEN +2.5 |
| Chiefs @ Raiders | KC -4.5 | Chiefs | KC -4.5 | Raiders | LV +4.5 |
| Chargers @ Seahawks | SEA -7 | Seahawks | SEA -7 | Seahawks | LAC +7 |
| Lions @ Panthers SNF | DET -3.5 | Lions | DET -3.5 | Lions | DET -3.5 |
| Falcons @ Saints MNF | NO -2.5 | Falcons | ATL +2.5 | Saints | NO -2.5 |
The current market has some enormous numbers: Baltimore is -11.5 over Tennessee and Minnesota -10.5 over Miami, while Buffalo is -6.5 against New England and Seattle -7 against the Chargers.
Thursday Night: Steelers at Browns
Mitch: Steelers 24, Browns 17
Nathan: Steelers 23, Browns 20
Both guys are laying the 2.5 points with Pittsburgh.
There’s an injury catch. Pittsburgh cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is out, while Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a broken wrist and Rico Dowdle is out. Cleveland will be without receiver Tylan Wallace, center Elgton Jenkins and guard Teven Jenkins.
Mitch’s view: Pittsburgh just put 30 on Cincinnati, and he’ll take Aaron Rodgers in a divisional game where Pittsburgh only needs to win by a field goal.
Nathan agrees—but expects Cleveland to make it ugly.
Nathan’s Question: Can the Redskins/Commanders Win Two in a Row?
Nathan gets his wish because this is one of the week’s most interesting games.
Washington stunned Seattle 33-31 in Week 3 with Marcus Mariota starting for the injured Jayden Daniels. Now the Commanders meet Indianapolis in London as 3.5-point underdogs. Daniels returned to limited practice Wednesday, although Washington hasn’t committed to playing him.
Mitch: Colts 27, Commanders 20.
Nathan: Commanders 27, Colts 24.
Nathan’s taking Washington +3.5 and the outright upset.
Nathan: “Can the Redskins—Commanders, whatever we’re calling them today—actually win two games in a row? I’m saying yes. Mariota just beat Seattle. If Daniels comes back, even better. And if they lose, I’m sure somebody somewhere will find a way to blame Dan Snyder or President Trump before the plane lands back from London.”
For clarity, that’s Nathan’s joke/commentary, not a factual claim that either Snyder or Trump bears responsibility for Washington’s 2026 results. The football question is considerably more concrete: Washington’s quarterback situation remains unsettled, Daniels is recovering from a dislocated left elbow, and Mariota would start again if Daniels isn’t ready. Then again, Benson, I wouldn’t put it past Jamie Raskin and Chris Van Hollen to blame Trump for Redskins/Comanders loosing.
Mitch’s Game to Watch: Chiefs at Raiders
Here’s the fascinating one.
Las Vegas enters Week 4 3-0, while Kansas City is laying 4.5 on the road.
Mitch: Chiefs 30, Raiders 23 KC -4.5
Mitch thinks this is where experience wins out.
Nathan: Raiders 27, Chiefs 24 LV +4.5
Nathan is going all the way.
“Everybody keeps waiting for the Raiders to remember they’re the Raiders. Maybe they’re actually good.”
That’s Nathan’s upset special of the week.
Ravens: Winner Doesn’t Necessarily Mean Cover
Tennessee at Baltimore presents exactly the kind of game where Mitch and Nathan differ philosophically.
Mitch: Ravens 34, Titans 17 BAL -11.5
Nathan: Ravens 27, Titans 20 TEN +11.5
They both have Baltimore winning. Mitch lays the monster number; Nathan grabs the points.
That’s an important distinction throughout Nathan’s card: picking a team to win doesn’t mean you have to pick it to cover.
Week 3 Injuries That Matter Now
The biggest storyline remains Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels. He practiced on a limited basis Wednesday for the first time since dislocating his left elbow in Week 2. Coach Dan Quinn has emphasized that Washington won’t rush him back.
Washington’s injury report is considerably longer than Daniels alone. Sam Cosmi and Nick Cross are out; Rachaad White didn’t practice Wednesday; and Frankie Luvu, Chig Okonkwo, Javon Kinlaw and several others were limited.
Pittsburgh’s secondary also bears watching Thursday. Porter is out and Ramsey is questionable, while Cleveland has significant offensive-line absences. Reuters
The league-wide injury situation is fluid this early in the week, so several Sunday picks could change as final Friday reports arrive. The NFL’s official Week 4 injury report is already tracking the practice statuses.
Baxter’s Week 4 Board
Mitch is willing to lay points again.
His strongest selections are Pittsburgh -2.5, Buffalo -6.5, Baltimore -11.5, Minnesota -10.5 and Detroit -3.5.
His underdog play is Dallas +2.5 over Houston outright, and he also likes Atlanta +2.5 over New Orleans Monday night.
Benson’s Week 4 Board
Nathan remains the more aggressive underdog hunter.
His biggest calls are Washington +3.5 outright, Denver +2.5 outright and Las Vegas +4.5 outright.
He also takes Tennessee +11.5, Miami +10.5 and the Chargers +7 while still picking Baltimore, Minnesota and Seattle to win those games.
Baxter & Benson’s Best Bets
Mitch Baxter: Steelers -2.5, Bills -6.5, Ravens -11.5, Lions -3.5.
Nathan Benson: Commanders +3.5, Raiders +4.5, Broncos +2.5, Chargers +7.
Both agree: Pittsburgh, Arizona, Green Bay, Rams, Buffalo, Chicago and Detroit win and cover.
And after what happened in Week 3, Nathan has one final warning:
“If your Week 4 parlay has sixteen favorites on it, maybe don’t start shopping for the boat yet.”
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